A symposium I covered this week. It is fun to listen to a knowledgeable person look back over history and then reference it to current news.
By JOAN HERSHBERGER
News-Times Staff
President Barack Obama inherited a mess when he came into the presidency, but Dr. John Sutherlin, speaking at the Noon Symposium at South Arkansas Community College Wednesday, doubted that the mess would have been any different if Al Gore had been the departing president.
Sutherlin, a political science professor at the University of Louisiana at Monroe and co-director of the social science research lab, is a 1986 graduate of El Dorado High School.
“Once 9-11 happened, this changed public policy – so much would have to happen. We had to go from Afghanistan to Iraq. It would not have made any difference if it had been Gore. With the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998 that Clinton signed, the United States had to enter the country.”
Sutherlin came to analyze Obama’s first 100 days in office.
“I am not sure why the first 100 days are more important than the first 45 or 90 days but we have placed some significance on them,” Sutherlin said. He saw only a a slight difference between Obama and McCain – no difference in economics; some difference with social concerns.
Sutherlin opened with a comparison to the first 100 days of previous presidents.
Like Bill Clinton, Obama changed the rules about tax dollars being spent on abortion or planned parenthood.
“Abortion will always be a hot button,” Sutherlin said. “Both parties get a lot of mileage out of it, while most Americans are dead in the middle. Both parties will continue to milk this issue. The stem cell research will continue to be involved. In 1980-81 there was a similar issue with the in-vitro fertilization of Reagan’s time. This is no longer a point of contention.”
George Bush’s transition into the presidency was truncated with the challenge on his election from opponent Al Gore. He had to deal with Yemen’s attack on the USS Cole and challenges on his appointments – and then came 9-11. George H.W. Bush Sr. had a smooth transition into the presidency from his years as vice-president under Ronald Reagan.
“Bill Clinton had the worst first 100 days in recent history. You would have to go back to Grant or Harding to find a worse first 100 days. He did not come in with a mandate because he never received 50 percent of the popular vote. He tried to tackle issues without a mandate such as gays in the military and healthcare reform,” Sutherlin said. “Like Obama, many of his appointees faced major concerns with tax problems such as failure to pay or tax fraud.” They failed on the floor.
No one else in the past 40-60 years has come in with more issues needing to be addressed than Obama. The last days of his predecessor had major financial losses, bank failures and the world opinion of the United States was very low.
The stimulus package – the biggest issue – will continue to evolve in the next two years because it is linked to a huge budget. In the past, during the first 100 days the newly elected president could reach across party lines, argue all day, then shake hands with members of Congress and they could go home as friends. In this first 100 days you do not see bipartisanship, but a series of bills passed along party lines in both houses of Congress, according to Sutherlin.
There is a big shift. State decisions will be affected because the stimulus package for the states comes with strings attached. “It has become a shell game. More or less is spent here or there and there is a limit on spending of the local government,” he said.
“But we have to consider our national interest in having a car company. We, as a nation, slipped up in 1983. At that time we had 783 shipyards, now we have six,” he said. Ships are now built in Pakistan and other countries.
During his first 100 days, Obama – who has a lot of personal charisma – has received favorable treatment from the press with minimal challenges or criticism from them, Sutherlin said. MSNBC fawns over him and Fox depicts him as unable to do anything right, according to Sutherlin.
Issues the Obama administration addressed during the 100 days included the Ledbetter Law aimed at ending sexual discrimination on the job. “Women doing the same work as a man for years have earned 15 percent less. If this law brings this up to speed, it will improve the work for many,” Sutherlin said.
The childcare laws catch the four million children and their families who fall between the cracks in state and federal coverage. But Sutherlin went on to underscore that there is a difference between actually approving a universal medical care bill and medical care. There may be a guarantee of coverage, but it does not exist if there are no facilities.
With the ethics changes, much of the mandated disclosure has come back on Obama. His top people have had to disclose their information. Without Tom Daeschel and his staff, Obama lost their efficiency and insider knowledge.
Whether it had been Obama or McCain who won the election, there would have been little difference in the changes in policy on global warming, according to Sutherlin. “We will follow the rules of the rest of the world in this regard.
Right now all of our energy comes from coal and gas. You can double the renewable resources in the next four years and it still would not change that because the renewable resources are only about 2 percent of the whole picture and they are difficult to put into place.”
Sutherlin spoke from personal experience in trying to convert at least 25 percent of his household energy to solar energy. The number of solar panels he would need would cover his entire roof and his neighbor’s garage.
“It is difficult to go green in urban areas and in apartments – people like their cars too much to give them up,” he said, adding that without an established infrastructure of mass transportation, it won’t happen.
Sutherlin pointed out that 100 years ago the newspapers carried stories worrying over the end of coal. “We still have oil and gas and coal. We are the only country with limitations on our natural resources. It is just not possible to reduce the carbon output with urban life.”
The reversal of the torture at Guantanamo Bay detention camp was inevitable, he said. If it had been McCain elected, as a former victim, it is unlikely that he would have continued it either, he thought. Sutherlin went on to point out the contradiction that while the world opinion opposes the torture, no other country is stepping forward to take these prisoners – because they are a problem. “They are very dangerous people.”
Internationally, Obama has reached out to Cuba and other countries trying to open and establish communication with the hope that if we could communicate with them that would make a difference. Sutherlin saw the move toward Cuba as taking care of an irritant to the last 13 presidents. It is a country about the size of Pennsylvania with half the population.
Looking world wide, “It does not make a difference to them if you are Republican or Democrat. You are an American and you have messed too long with the Mid-East. North Korea is not likely to reduce its nuclear weapons with Obama and it does not matter to them if he is a Democrat or Republican,” Sutherlin assessed.
Internationally, the United States is a tricky subject. “We can be well received and liked and wrong in what we are doing,” he said. “The problem is that the United States has a third of the world’s income and has the largest military. We can act unilaterally – and many times have done so when we could have used another form.”
Sutherlin said Obama seeks stability in Pakistan because of the nuclear weapons.
“We have the constant threat from Iran and Pakistan. Israel has a new prime minister.”
Israel has bombed facilities with nuclear capabilities. There is a saying, “If the Palestinians put down their weapons, we will have peace. If the Israelis put down their weapons, there will be no Israel.”
Sutherlin said he does not think that Obama would support Israel, but would cut them loose. He does not support Israel as did Clinton. Clinton was almost entirely consumed with Israel in his last 90 days, Sutherlin said. Obama will move toward the Palestinians more than Israel, but the Palestinians are split into five little countries. A policy decision will force Israel to act unilaterally to protect itself such as the building of a wall or putting up a fence.
While Obama is a charismatic speaker and very highly popular around the country and the world, on the policy side, people have begun to step back and say, “let’s take another look at this. Whether you like him or not, Obama is a charismatic charmer, he is a good speaker, has style, is young and optimistic. He is the antithesis of McCain. But then so was Carter. He was seen as new, young and a maverick,” he said.
“Obama does not just appeal to certain populations. I cannot remember when I have seen this clean of a break between administrations.” Sutherlin said he thought Obama will continue to be popular until it hits the pocketbook.
On religious issues, Obama is notorious for not referring to God in any form or having any religious symbol around him, Sutherlin observed.
Energy will continue to be an important issue. An energy policy of cap and trade is a noble effort, opined Sutherlin, but if the goal is to reduce the production of any pollutants and convert to other ways it will take a lot of money to build. “There is a lot of money in the economic package for green projects,” he said.
“The Republicans need to take a look at this. They can be environmentally active and a business. Oil and gas enjoyed a lot of favor under Bush, and we will see a reduction in the emission control numbers.” This will make a difference in the numbers expected during expansion. Arkansas and Louisiana have bio-fuels and renewables such as sugar cane, algae and wood chips. The next issue is universal health-care. There are two ways to achieve this: a slow, incremental approach where one group after another is added to the health care plan, or an omnibus plan, according to Sutherlin.
“Look for a debate on these issues in the summer and fall. I do not feel really positive about them. Everyone talks about the European plan. Yes, they have it and they have a higher tax bracket. But 20 percent of Europeans have private insurance on top of that. That is a greater percentage of dissatisfied people than in the United States. There is a difference between having insurance and having access to facilities themselves. We would need to construct.”
Several in attendance asked questions after Sutherlin’s lecture.
In relation to the economy, he predicted inflation and hoped it would not soar to double digits as it did in 1977-78.
“It is coming, you just can’t see when it is coming or for sure when it will come,” he said. Bush spent more money in his last 90 days of office than he did his first seven and a half years, Sutherlin said. Obama is spending too much money and that is not a lot different from Bush.
“They have fleeced the American people. Remember in 1945 you could purchase a Coke for a nickel and now it costs a dollar? Has your income increased 20 percent in that same time period? The value of income and property is less. The decline of the dollar is an important story that will not end.”